Analysis of online discourse indicates a significant resurgence in Iranians’ acceptance of the government’s official positions, policies, and decisions. This level of online acceptance, previously recorded at 76.4% during the Iran-Israel 12-Day War (June 2025), had seen a notable decline to 55% during the social unrest in January 2026. Recent data suggests this support has not only recovered but has now surpassed its earlier peak, now at 84.2%, a shift attributed by analysts to heightened tensions stemming from perceived US-Israel aggression.
“Rally Around the Flag” Effect
Wartime pressures and bombardments appear to foster a stronger sense of national identity among Iranians, temporarily reducing visible political divisions with the government, as observed in social media trends over the past 10 months.
Opposition Mostly Outside Iran
Because international internet access within Iran has been significantly restricted during wartime, posts on global platforms in wartime episodes are more likely to reflect the views of the Iranian diaspora, while domestic platforms primarily capture online discourse from users inside Iran. On domestic platforms, support for the Iranian government has reached 89.1, suggesting that opposition to government during wartimes is largely voiced by those outside the country.
Data Sources and Methodology
This study analyzes large-scale social media data collected between May 2025 and March 2026 examining both domestic and international online platforms.
